PROSPECTS FOR TRADE BETWEEN MAINLAND CHINA AND PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING COUNTRIES BRIGHTEN

Trade between Mainland China and Portuguese-speaking Countries declined again in 2016 but the decrease was smaller than the year before. The Secretary-General of the Forum for Economic and Trade Co-operation between China and Portuguesespeaking Countries (Macao), Xu Yingzhen, tells Macao Image she is optimistic about trade between Mainland China and Portuguese-speaking Countries.

The annual value of trade between Mainland China and Portuguese-speaking Countries fell by 7.72 percent in 2016 to about US$90.874 billion, official data show, declining for the second year in a row. In 2015, the value of such trade decreased by 25.73 percent.

The Mainland’s trade with five Portuguese-speaking Countries (namely Angola, Brazil, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique and São Tomé and Príncipe) decreased in 2016. Trade with three Portuguese-speaking Countries increased: with Cape Verde 9.96 percent, Portugal 28.54 percent and East Timor 61.39 percent.

Brazil remained Mainland China’s biggest trading partner with Portuguese-speaking Countries in 2016, but the value of their trade fell by 5.91 percent to just under US$67.57 billion.

Secretary-General of the Permanent Secretariat of the Forum for Economic and Trade Co-operation between China and Portuguese-speaking Countries (Macao) Xu Yingzhen

Steady despite uncertainty 

Ms Xu says the decrease in trade should be viewed in the overall context of the global economic downturn. This context includes the decline in prices of commodities and what Ms Xu calls the “enormous pressure” on Mainland China’s trade with the rest of the world generally. But she predicts “a stable and positive development trend” for trade between the two sides.

She points out that the decline in trade between Mainland China and Portuguese-speaking Countries was smaller in 2016 than the year before. The value of such trade however “remained at a high level”. She says that in 2014 the annual value of trade between Mainland China and Portuguese-speaking Countries was US$132.58 billion, about 12 times the value of trade in 2003, when the Forum for Economic and Trade Co-operation between China and Portuguese-speaking Countries (Macao), known as Forum Macao, was established.

Ms Xu says another indication that trade between Mainland China and Portuguese-speaking Countries will grow is the value of trade in January 2017. China General Administration of Customs data show the value of commodities traded was nearly US$8.219 billion in January, 33.47 percent more than a year earlier. She says Mainland China imports from Portuguese-speaking Countries grew by 38.26 percent to more than US$5.26 billion and exports grew by 25.71 percent to almost US$2.96 billion.

Optimism for 2017

“Mainland Chinese foreign trade is still facing tough and complex challenges,” Ms Xu says. She says this is due to “a lot of uncertainty and unstable factors”, but she forecasts trade between the Mainland and Portuguese-speaking Countries will develop as the Central Government policy meant to increase foreign trade steadily will “gradually take effect” and because “new drivers of growth are building up”.

Ms Xu says the Permanent Secretariat of Forum Macao will put greater effort into the promotion of trade, including arranging and taking part in promotions, business-matching sessions and seminars. Measures will be taken to invite Portuguese-language speakers to do business with the Mainland and to encourage Chinese businesspeople to do business with Portuguese-speaking Countries, with Macao facilitating such business, she says.

The Permanent Secretariat of Forum Macao will organise delegations to visit Changzhou in the eastern province of Jiangsu; Qingdao, Shandong province, also in the east of the Mainland; and to other Mainland cities on fact finding tours and hold promotional and business-matching events. The Permanent Secretariat will also take part this year in trade conventions and exhibitions meant to promote closer cooperation between the Mainland and Portuguesespeaking Countries, she says.

Events scheduled for this year include the Seminar on Finance and International Co-operation for Productivity, the Round Table Meeting between Leaders of Provinces and Municipalities of China and Portuguese-speaking Countries, and the 7th Summit for Commercial and Industrial Development of Jiangsu, Macao and Portuguese-speaking Countries.